It has been online since February: the potential analysis for fiber optic expansion in Germany. For each municipality or administrative community, it shows the current status and the predicted possibilities for self-service expansion. There are two important findings: firstly, more than 90 percent of the territorial units have the potential to be self-sufficiently developed in the future. Secondly, the funding will also help to provide the remaining percent of areas that have not yet been developed with gigabit-fast Internet. The potential analysis will be an important tool for the sector dialog that is being introduced to improve the funding process. This will strengthen cooperation between local telecommunications companies and the municipality.
The potential analysis was developed as part of the gigabit strategy as a tool to provide clarity on the current status of fiber optic expansion. All interested parties can find detailed information on the forecast potential at http://www.bmdv.bund.de/potenzialanalyse. In addition to local authorities, the study is also aimed at potential investors. The Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport Affairs (BMDV) has published a supplementary report to explain the analysis as transparently as possible. The potential analysis is based on data from a total of 44.9 million connections and around 22.1 million buildings. The civil engineering costs were determined through a survey of network operators and expansion and planning companies. Expenditure already incurred was also included in the analysis.
Details of the analysis
The methodology of the potential analysis is complex. Various parameters are considered, for example the distance from buildings, the size of expansion areas and the average investments for FTTB/H connections. These include expenditure in the branching segment, the main cable segment and the backbone segment. The investments planned here are estimated and totaled. The so-called investment cap (CAPEX limit) was also determined. This describes the level of investment per connection above which a company is no longer prepared to roll out fiber optics. The CAPEX limit is based on the stakeholder survey and is the same for every administrative community, regardless of existing expansion or existing demand. The exact value cannot be made public due to confidentiality agreements, but is between EUR 1,700 and EUR 2,800 per connection.
The analysis of potential does not provide any information on when individual municipalities or parts thereof will be connected to fiber optics. This would require information on the expansion resources of investors, for example. In addition, the analysis has various uncertainties due to the methodological approach, for example a possible overestimation or underestimation of the expansion potential for the private sector, as not all parameters of the expansion are known to the respondents (e.g. civil engineering costs or specific expansion strategies of network operators). The analysis provides impetus for increasing expansion potential, e.g. through restructuring or a rethink in planning. Settlement areas in peripheral locations in particular could also be connected via a neighboring administrative community, for example.
Dr. Volker Wissing, Federal Minister for Digital Affairs and Transport, presented the analysis and commented on the current situation: “Germany goes digital: we are making rapid progress in implementing the gigabit strategy. With the potential analysis, we are implementing another central measure of our gigabit strategy after the gigabit land register. With this innovative tool, local authorities are now in a much better position when it comes to getting the most out of their own expansion and limiting state expansion funding to what is necessary. It is now up to the municipalities to actively use the new instrument to accelerate gigabit expansion. Our aim is to make the best possible use of the huge potential of private investment.”
Work is also continuing on promoting the expansion of fiber optics. The new basic concept is in place and is currently being coordinated by the departments. It is due to be published in April. A further call for consulting services has already been launched to support the preparation and implementation of the subsidized infrastructure measures.